A no-snow event

It is that time of year here in the East when we note the chill in the air, see the thin layer of frost on our car windows in the morning, and say, "A storm is probably coming! We need to get milk and bread!"

That is what we do best here: freak out about things that may or may not occur, or that are occurring 753 miles away from us, and therefore MIGHT also occur here. Within the next hour or two.

So that we can be prepared, sometimes the winter forecast comes to us before summer is even over. If it calls for severe cold and snow, we can stock up on supplies when they're plentiful, in August. And hope that we don't have any power outages from a summer storm.

So I checked the winter forecast for our area early this fall. One expert suggested that we had "a 50-50 chance of being above or below normal temperatures" this winter.

I pondered the source of this brilliant prediction, and narrowed it down to two choices:

1. An actual, degree-holding, paid meteorologist with access to the most up-to-date instruments and weather models

2. An individual with the mathematical understanding of a marmoset

My scientific analysis leads me to believe there is a 50-50 chance of either being the source.

A few weeks ago there was some excitement among the radio weather people and reporters about a potential snowstorm brewing in the West that might, just might, give us a couple of feet of snow. Or maybe a dusting. It was hard to tell, the weatherman emphasized. He suggested, only half jokingly, that perhaps listeners should go stock up on their bread and milk NOW, just in case, even though any activity was an entire week away.

A major weather website had this to say about this particular meteorological situation:

"It is important to stress that this will not be a major snow event. It will not even be a non-major snow event. Probably, you will get nothing."

But you should DEFINITELY go to the store, just in case.